Today, I will look closely at the current polls within the context of religion, comparing how Nana Addo and John Mahama performed in 2020 among the various religious groups and how the three leading candidates for the 2024 elections are currently performing among the same group of voters.
This analysis has been made possible because in the survey instrument, we asked voters which religion they belong to, how they voted in 2020 elections and how they intend to vote in 2024.
According the April 2024 national poll which samples 6128 voters with a confidence level of 99% and 1.66% margin of error, 55% of Christian voters who voted in the 2020 elections voted for Nana Akufo Addo, 44% voted for John Mahama and 1% voted for other candidates. For the Muslims, 54% voted for John Mahama and 44% voted for Nana Akufo Addo and 2% for other candidates. Among traditional religion, 50% voted for John Mahama and 47% voted for Nana Addo and 3% for other candidates. Among those who belong to other religions, 52% voted for Mahama and 46% Nana Addo and 2% voted for other candidates. Among those who don't have any religion, 55% voted for Nana Addo and 44% for Mahama and 1% for other candidates.
However, analysis of the same demography for the 2024 elections shows that 53% of Christians now intend to vote for John Mahama, 37% intend to vote for Dr Bawumia and 7% for Alan Kyeremanten and 3% will vote for other candidates, representing a swing of 9% from NPP candidate to John Mahama when compared with 2020 polls.
Among Muslims who voted in 2020, now 61% intend to vote for JDM compared to 32% for DMB, 5% for AKK and 2% will vote for other candidates. For those from traditional religions, 57% for JDM, 34% for DMB, 4% for AKK and 5% will vote for other candidates. Among other religions, 58% for JDM, 37% for DMB, 4% for AKK and 1% will vote for other candidates. For those without any religion, 55% for JDM, 33% for DMB, 11% for AKK and 1% will vote for other candidates.
The data shows that there is a swing of 9% from Nana Addo to John Mahama among Christians when compared to the 2020 elections. Among Muslims, the swing 7% to JDM, traditional religion, a swing of 7%, other religions, a swing of 6% to JDM and finally among those without religion, the swing is 10% to JDM.
While in 2020, NPP candidates led among the Christians and voters with no-religion, currently the NPP candidate is trailing among all religious groups.
The 2024 elections is looking very different even from those who voted in 2020. This analysis does not include the views of those who would be voting for the first time.